September 23rd, 2017
catyuy: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] catyuy at 09:48pm on 23/09/2017
Moving to ABQ, New Mexico first thing it the morning
September 21st, 2017
juliet316: (DW: Eleven tux)
September 20th, 2017
dani_meows: (star wars: padme in yellow)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 01:17am on 20/09/2017
I'm nearly hysterical with pain.

I have a sinus infection that's triggered a migraine and neither icepack nor meds have done anything.

And Amazon says they delivered my meds to the leasing office on Friday but the leasing office does not have my package. Ian said they seemed more willing to search when he said it was medicine.

I'm going to try and distract myself with this soulmate verse plot bunny I have where you only know it's your soulmate when you can actually orgasm.

It's weird and odd and I think the HP verse is best to explore it.
September 18th, 2017
dani_meows: (dw: Nine bugger this)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 12:06am on 18/09/2017
I've been really grumpy this weekend.

Sebastian peed in our closet also so that's four places he peed that's not a litter box in two days.

Since he's not my cat he's been banned from our room and I'm keeping the door shut.

Our cat is the only one allowed in.

And our AC is broken again...

So I've just been going around grumpy all weekend.
September 16th, 2017
dani_meows: (dw: Nine bugger this)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 12:58am on 16/09/2017 under
Argh cats.

Especially Basshole. My roommates eldest demonspawn.

He peed on my dirty clothes, he peed on the bathroom rug, and probably (could have been Boo or Mercat) peed underneath the box.

I wonder if the alligators in the pond are hungry? (Joke: I'd never hatm the little bastard... And I normally like him. Might even love him but.... Urgh.... CATS
September 15th, 2017
dani_meows: (disney: cheshire cat we're all mad here)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 12:22am on 15/09/2017
I have a headache so I ended up reading true crime Wikipedia entries. I normally read the solved ones but I ended up reading the unsolved ones and now I can't seem to sleep...

And not just because of the ice pack on my neck.
September 14th, 2017
ljgeoff: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] ljgeoff at 05:24pm on 14/09/2017 under
I'm studying for my exam on Monday. According to my Prof, one should take a break from the material every 20 or 30 min, to increase comprehension and retention. So I decided to read some papers.

If I'm reading this one right, we have about two years until we hit the point of no return (PNR) on climate change.

From: Brenda C. van Zalinge, Qing Yi Feng, Matthias Aengenheyster, and Henk A. Dijkstra. (2017) On determining the point of no return in climate change. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 707–717.

Definitions in the introduction:

Given a certain desirable subspace of the climate system state vector (e.g. to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference) and a suite of control options (e.g. CO2 emission reduction), it is important to know when it is too late to steer the system to “safe” conditions, for example in the year 2100. In other words, when is the point of no return (PNR)? The tolerable windows approach (TWA; Petschel-Held et al., 1999) and viability theory (VT; Aubin, 2009) approaches and the theory in (Heitzig et al., 2016) suffer from the “curse of dimensionality”and cannot be used within CMIP5 climate models.

For example, the optimization problems in VT and TWA lead to dynamic programming schemes which have up to now only been solved for model systems with low-dimensional state vectors. The approach in (Heitzig et al., 2016) requires the computation of regional boundaries in state space, which also becomes tedious in more than two dimensions. Hence,with these approaches it will be impossible to determine a PNR using reasonably detailed models of the climate system.

Steaming on to the discussion...

Pachauri et al. (2014) stated with high confidence that “without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally”. If no measures are taken to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions during this century and if there are no new technological developments that can reduce GHGs in the atmosphere, it is likely that the global mean surface temperature (GMST) will be 4 ◦C higher than the pre-industrial GMST at the end of the 21st century (Pachauri et al., 2014). Consequently, it is important that anthropogenic emissions are regulated and significantly reduced before widespread and irreversible impacts occur. It would help motivate mitigation to know when it is “too late”.

In this study we have defined the concept of the point of no return (PNR) in climate change more precisely using stochastic viability theory and a collection of mitigation scenarios. For an energy balance model, as in Sect. 3, the probability density function could be explicitly computed, and hence stochastic viability kernels could be determined. The additional advantage of this model is that a bi-stable regime can easily be constructed to investigate the effects of tipping behaviour on the PNR. We used this model (with the assumption that CO2 could be controlled directly instead of through emissions) to illustrate the concept of PNR based on a tolerance time for which the climate state is non-viable. For the RCP scenarios considered, the PNR is smaller in the bi-stable than in the mono-stable regime of this model. The occurrence of possible transitions to warm states in this model indeedcause the PNR to be “too late” earlier.

The determination of the PNR in the high-dimensional PlaSim climate model, however, shows the key innovation in our approach, i.e. the use of linear response theory (LRT) to estimate the probability density function of the GMST. PlaSim was used to compute another variant of a PNR based only on the requirement that the climate state is viable in the year 2100. Hence, the PNR here is the time at which no allowed mitigation scenario can be chosen to keep GMST below a certain threshold in the year 2100 with a specified probability. In the PlaSim results, we used a viability region defined as GMSTs lower than 2 ◦C above the pre-industrial value, but with our methodology, the PNR can be easily determined for any threshold defining the viable region. The more academic case in which we assume that GHG levels can be controlled directly provides PNR (for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) values around 2050 (Sect. 4.2). However, the more realistic case in which the emissions are controlled (Sect. 4.3) and a carbon model is used reduces the PNR for these three RCP scenarios by about 30 years. The reason is that there is a delay between the decrease in GHG gas emissions and concentrations. my emphasis... I was reading this and went "wait, wuh?...

Although our approach provides new insights into the PNR in climate change, we recognize that there is potential for substantial further improvement. First of all, the PlaSim model has a too-high climate sensitivity compared to CMIP5 models. Although in the most realistic case (Sect. 4.3) we somehow compensate for this effect, it would be much better to apply the LRT approach to CMIP5 simulations. Second, in the LRT approach, we assume the GMST distributions to be Gaussian. This is well justified in PlaSim, as can be verified from the PlaSim simulations, but it may not be the case for a typical CMIP5 model. Third, for the more realistic case in Sect. 4.3, we do not capture the uncertainties in the carbon model and hence in the radiative forcing.

A large ensemble such as that available for PlaSim is not available (yet) for any CMIP5 model. However, we have recently applied the same methodology to two CMIP5 model ensembles, i.e. a 34-member ensemble of abrupt CO2 quadrupling and a 35-member ensemble of smooth 1 % CO2 increase per year. The CO2-quadrupling ensemble was used to derive the Green’s function, and then the 1 % CO2 increase ensemble was used as a check on the resulting response.

The probability density function of GMST increase is close to Gaussian for the 1 % CO2 increase ensemble but clearly deviates from a Gaussian distribution for the 4x CO2- forcing ensemble, particularly at later times. Although the ensemble is relatively small and the models within the ensemble are different (but many are related), the results for the LRT-determined GMST response (Aengenheyster, 2017) are surprisingly good. This indicates that the methodology has a high potential to be successfully applied to the results of
CMIP5 model simulations (and in the future, CMIP6). The applicability of LRT to other observables than GMST can in principle be performed, but the results may be less useful (e.g. due to non-Gaussian distributions).

Because PlaSim is highly idealized compared to a typical CMIP5 model, one cannot attribute much importance to the precise PNR values obtained for the PlaSim model as in Fig. 7. However, we think that our approach is general enough to handle many different political and socioeconomic scenarios combined with state-of-the-art climate models when adequate response functions of CMIP5 models have been determined (e.g. using LRT). Hence, it will be possible to make better estimates of the PNR for the real climate system. We therefore hope that these ideas on the PNR in climate change will eventually become part of the decision-making.

so, yeah, if I'm reading this wrong, that would be good to know
September 12th, 2017
ljgeoff: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] ljgeoff at 08:51am on 12/09/2017 under
First, to get it out of the way, I did *really* crappy on my first test of the semester. I've mentioned a couple of times that I must get 81% overall in the exams to pass the course. This semester is split into two courses, and I must pass the first one to move on to the second one. A person can only fail one class; a second failure and you will not be continuing on.

So far, I haven't failed a class. I did have to drop out for a semester when I injured my knee, but that doesn't count. There are four exams, with the first three being worth 50 points each, and the fourth cumulative exam worth 75 points. I must average 81% across all four exams to pass this course.

On the first test, I scored a 70%. I've never done so poorly. It still possible for me to pass, but it'll be tough.

I really don't want to do this, Sam-I-Am. I do not like it here or there. I do not like it anywhere.


Mike asked what he could do to help me pass. I said that I might be able to pass if I moved out and only worked on this from now until December -- no kids, no housework, no Chris, no job. Which isn't possible.

The next test is next Monday, and I have a 12 hour clinical on Friday, and then work 12 hour days on Saturday and Sunday. On the other hand, I have today and Thursday off. On the other hand, laundry needs doing and I have Chris to watch.

The main problem is that I'm having a really hard time concentrating on *anything*.

I just don't know if I can do this. Worse, I really don't want to. But I figure I might as well continue on and see how far forward I can get. If I fail this class, I'll reenter in January and see if I can graduate. I'm very willful.
dani_meows: (star wars: padme in yellow)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 04:18am on 12/09/2017 under
I feel guilty. A sort of survivor's guilt.

Tampa had been phased to in the words of our mayor take a punch in the face and then Irma shifted course.

During the long night I was happy it stayed on land because the path when it stayed on the gulf before hitting us was the one that would have devastated us.

And then the path shifted. As our local paper said, "Irma staggered along the state like a drunken tourist."

And my section of Tampa was the only part still in the cone... And then even we weren't in the cone.

I was euphoric. It didn't hit us we we're safe, the eye didn't hit us.

Mum (mother in law) was in Georgia, parents were fine, mom was fine, brother was fine...

Then I saw the flooding, the destruction in Jacksonville, in parts of Orlando, in Charleston

And I feel guilty for anxiety fueled euphoria... And yet grateful my home was spared.

Mum's house may be damaged because the area where she lives was closer to the eye path when it was still cat 3 and some parts experienced flooding.

But as she's still in Georgia (leaving today at midday we won't know until later).

And the flooding isn't as bad as Jacksonville and Charleston.
September 11th, 2017
spikewriter: (Wonder Woman)
September 10th, 2017
dani_meows: (disney: cheshire cat we're all mad here)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 11:41pm on 10/09/2017
We still have power here unlike most of Tampa. The path has shifted so it's more inland and my area is on the cones border.

I'm feeling better and might sleep soon.

Hopefully in the morning things still look nice.
dani_meows: (hp: Mcgonagal head of Gryffindor)
posted by [personal profile] dani_meows at 12:42pm on 10/09/2017 under
I'm as prepared as we can be.

Path has shifted back towards Tampa and away from St. Pete which should reduce the winds slamming into us if she takes that path since the land will slow down.

My step mother showed once more that she has the emotional range of a teaspoon by yelling at me for being afraid. New Smyrna Beach where I grew up never took a direct hit.

We had winds and maybe tree damage but until I lived through Charley. I'd never experienced the complete destruction of a dead on hurricane.

So yeah. I'm afraid. Irma's a bitch of a storm.

But for now I'm going to pretend I'm a Yong Minerva McGonagall with balls of steel and no fear. Or perhaps Rose Tyler faces down Daleks

Interesting facts: The most accurate weather model they use is the European model based in Germany.

I'll update until the internet dies and/or the internet dies.


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